Topic 4.9 · AA and AI, SL and HL

The probability is the area, not the boundary

The normal curve, the three benchmarks worth knowing, and working backwards from a probability to a value.

A test is scaled so scores are normal with mean 100 and standard deviation 15. Drag the boundaries. The number underneath is the shaded area, and the shaded area is the probability.

85 to 115
0.6827shaded area = probability
−1.00lower z
1.00upper z

The z-value tells you how many standard deviations out you are. It is not the probability.

The three benchmarks

WithinRange hereProbability
μ ± σ85 to 115about 68%
μ ± 2σ70 to 130about 95%
μ ± 3σ55 to 145about 99.7%

These are worth knowing by heart. They give you a sanity check on every answer: if a calculator says P(85 < X < 115) is 0.23, something has gone in wrong, because one standard deviation either side is always about two thirds.

Properties worth stating

Forwards and backwards

forwards: given a value, find a probability. P(X < 115) = 0.8413 backwards: given a probability, find the value. The top 10% starts at 119.2

The inverse normal is the one people set up wrongly. Calculators usually want the area to the LEFT. If a question asks for the top 10%, feed in 0.9, not 0.1. Getting 80.8 instead of 119.2 is the standard symptom, and the symmetry of the curve makes it look plausible.

Your turn

1. With μ = 100 and σ = 15, find P(X < 115) to 4 decimal places.

2. Find P(X > 130) to 4 decimal places.

3. The top 10% of scores start at what value, to 1 decimal place?

Where the marks go

A sketch with the region shaded. It is quick, it is often a mark, and it catches a tail on the wrong side before the calculator does.

Stating X ~ N(μ, σ²) with the numbers. Note the notation uses the variance, so N(100, 225) here, not N(100, 15).

On an inverse normal, saying which area you fed in. Showing 0.9 for the top 10% is what distinguishes a method slip from a wrong answer.

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